When Abuja unveiled the 2025 national budget, security once again emerged as the single biggest line item. Of the total ₦6.57 trillion allocated to the security and defence sector, a staggering ₦4.07 trillion will be used for personnel costs — salaries, allowances, and pensions for the armed forces, police, and paramilitary agencies. Capital expenditure — the money for buying new equipment, building facilities, and modernising the forces — gets ₦1.50 trillion, while overhead costs such as training, rations, and fuel account for ₦642.55 billion.

This headline number looks impressive, but as always, the devil is in the detail. Who actually gets the money? What does it pay for? And what does it mean for Nigeria’s security outlook in 2025 and beyond?

Who Gets What

Defence Ministry:
The Ministry of Defence and the armed forces take the lion’s share — ₦3.10 trillion. This covers salaries for over 200,000 personnel across the Army, Navy, and Air Force, as well as operations in the North-East, North-West, and Gulf of Guinea.

Police Affairs Ministry:
Policing receives ₦1.31 trillion, reflecting the government’s renewed emphasis on internal security and community policing reforms. Much of this will go into recruiting and equipping new officers, though critics argue that the real challenge remains police professionalism and accountability.

Interior Ministry:
Immigration, Civil Defence, Fire Service, and Prisons are funded through the Ministry of Interior, which gets ₦1.11 trillion. Border security remains a priority as Nigeria grapples with smuggling, arms trafficking, and irregular migration.

Office of the National Security Adviser (NSA):
The NSA’s office — responsible for intelligence coordination — receives ₦690.84 billion, a boost aimed at improving counterterrorism capabilities and cyber defence.

Others:
Service-wide votes take ₦638.34 billion, often used for contingency operations, while the Police Service Commission receives ₦2.56 billion for oversight and recruitment processes.

Winners in the 2025 Budget

The Armed Forces:
The Nigerian Army remains the biggest winner, as expected. Its share of operations and personnel costs ensures continued funding for counter-insurgency, anti-banditry, and internal security missions.

Local Defence Industry:
A key positive is the allocation to DICON and its private-sector partners. Capital funding has been earmarked for expanding ammunition plants, armoured vehicle assembly lines, and UAV development. This supports Nigeria’s long-term goal of achieving 40% local production capacity by 2026.

Maritime Security:
The Nigerian Navy sees increased funding for patrol boats and offshore surveillance systems. With oil theft costing billions annually, this investment is crucial for protecting offshore assets and deterring piracy.

The Losers — and Why It Matters

Air Power Modernisation:
Despite the new allocations, the Air Force remains stretched. The budget barely covers maintenance for the A-29 Super Tucanos and aging helicopters, leaving little room for procurement of next-generation fighters or ISR aircraft.

R&D and Innovation:
Only a small fraction goes to research and development, meaning Nigeria risks lagging behind in drones, cyber tools, and AI-driven battlefield systems — all of which are shaping modern warfare.

Soldier Welfare Beyond Salaries:
While pay is covered, allowances, medical care, and post-service benefits are underfunded. This has a direct impact on morale and retention.

Hidden Costs

Recurrent Spending Dominance:
The biggest challenge remains the structure of the budget — over 70% goes to personnel costs, leaving less than 30% for capital projects. Nigeria is essentially spending to maintain its current force rather than to transform it.

Foreign Exchange Pressure:
Despite efforts to source locally, significant funds still go abroad for spare parts and foreign contractors, worsening naira depreciation pressures.

Economic Opportunity Cost:
The ₦6.57 trillion spent on security is money not going to education, healthcare, or infrastructure. This guns-versus-butter dilemma must be balanced carefully.

Toward a Smarter Defence Budget

Nigeria’s security challenges justify high spending, but the question is whether the nation is getting value for money. Greater transparency is essential. Classified contracts should be subjected to National Assembly oversight, and procurement should be benchmarked against international best practice to avoid inflated costs.

Policymakers must also rebalance spending. More resources should flow to capital expenditure and R&D, ensuring Nigeria builds capacity rather than just pays salaries. Investments in local defence manufacturing should be ring-fenced, reducing forex exposure and creating jobs.

Security is the foundation of commerce. For readers, the defence budget is not just a government exercise — it is an economic stability plan. A smarter, more efficient budget will reduce kidnapping and oil theft, secure logistics routes, and restore investor confidence.

The 2025 budget shows promise — but the next 12 months will determine whether it delivers more boots, more equipment, and more security on the ground, or whether it simply maintains the status quo.

Majemite Jaboro